global Archives - The Systems Thinker https://thesystemsthinker.com/tag/global/ Wed, 13 Jan 2016 10:31:57 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 Scenarios of the Future: The Urgent Case for Sustainability https://thesystemsthinker.com/scenarios-of-the-future-the-urgent-case-for-sustainability/ https://thesystemsthinker.com/scenarios-of-the-future-the-urgent-case-for-sustainability/#respond Wed, 13 Jan 2016 10:27:22 +0000 http://systemsthinker.wpengine.com/?p=2131 was in grade school when the original Limits to Growth (Universe Books, 1972) was published. The environmental consciousness that blossomed in the early 1970s led me and many others in the post–baby boom demographic to develop a basic confidence in society’s ability to address global limits. The creation of the Environmental Protection Agency and the […]

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I was in grade school when the original Limits to Growth (Universe Books, 1972) was published. The environmental consciousness that blossomed in the early 1970s led me and many others in the post–baby boom demographic to develop a basic confidence in society’s ability to address global limits. The creation of the Environmental Protection Agency and the passing of clean air and water legislation signaled that, as a country, the United States was prepared to change the way we did things. By the 1980s, industrial cities like Pittsburg had reduced their air pollution problems by shifting to new economic activities with fewer environmental impacts. And in the 1990s, the global community’s response to the hole in the earth’s ozone layer provided an example of how quickly change can occur once there is consensus around the need for action.

Nevertheless, despite the progress illustrated by these and other cases, the forces of unsustainable growth and resource exploitation have continued to compound. So the release of Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (Chelsea Green, 2004) by Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows comes at an important time. For newcomers to the systems approach, the 30-Year Update presents the logic of overshoot and collapse and emphasizes the urgent need for sustainability without dwelling too much on the mechanics of the methodology (see “Key Terms”). At the same time, those already inclined to see things from a systems perspective not only have their mental models reinforced and refined, but also have a series of cogent examples to draw upon when spreading the gospel of sustainable development.

Systems and Growth

Three themes emerge in the book: background on systems and the mechanics of growth; the introduction of a formal computer model, known as World3, and some of the scenarios that it produces; and implications and recommendations (see “The World3 Model” on p. 9). Throughout the volume, but particularly in the first three chapters, the authors explain the basic laws of system structure and behavior with a lucidity that comes from decades devoted to the dissemination of these concepts.

KEY TERMS

Overshoot

When we don’t know our limits, or ignore them when we do, we are apt to consume or otherwise use up system resources at a rate that cannot be maintained. Many young adults find their bodies’ limits for processing alcohol by overdoing it a few times. Fishing fleets discover the ocean’s limit for replenishing fish after depleting the fish stocks for a given area.

Collapse

Overshooting a limit can sometimes have dire consequences, namely, it can deplete or otherwise undermine the underlying resource. This means that even after consumption is moderated, the resource is not available at the pre-overshoot levels. If the drinking binge is hard enough so that the liver is damaged, the body may never fully recover its ability to process alcohol. If the fishing fleet grows big enough, the fish stocks may never recover.

Sustainability / Sustainable System

Systems thinkers, system dynamicists, ecologists, resource managers, and others often use “sustainable” in some form or another to refer to a system state (or operating level) that honors the limits of all vital resources.

Though usually considered “best practice,” it is not common to come across computer modelers who clearly communicate the purpose of their model and its associated boundaries; that is, the question the model was intended to address and those for which it loses its ability to provide meaningful insight. So it is a treat (for modeling geeks, anyway) to have the authors devote several pages to just these concerns in the course of their introduction to the World3 model. The central question they mean to address is: Faced with the possibility of global collapse, what actions can we take that will make a difference and lead to a sustainable future? It is clear that this is a model whose primary purpose is to help us think, not to provide the answer. In the course of laying out their model’s purpose, the authors make one of the best cases for “modeling for learning” that I have come across.

THE WORLD3 MODEL

The World3 model was created in the early 1970s by a project team at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Using one of MIT’s mainframe computers, the team used system dynamics theory and computer modeling to analyze the long-term causes and consequences of growth in the world’s population and material economy. They gathered data on, among other things, the pattern of depletion of nonrenewable resources and the factors that drive resource extraction, the pattern of consumption of renewable resources and information about how those renewable resources are replenished, and levels and drivers of pollution, health, industrial production, and population. The resulting model allowed the team to explore a range of “what if” scenarios: What if energy resources are twice what current estimates tell us? What if pollution control technologies are developed faster than expected?

By 1992 the model could be run on a desktop computer loaded with the STELLA® software. When the authors ran the model with updated data, they discovered that the state of the planet was worse than the model had predicted it would be—many resources were already pushed beyond their sustainable limits. But they again showed that the right actions taken in a timely manner could avert a global system collapse.

In 2002 the authors began preparing The 30-Year Update. Once again, they have asked how well the model is tracking with transpiring events, updated the data, and made new scenario runs to explore what we can do to avoid collapse.

The authors introduce a variety of potential actions into the World3 model, at first, one-by-one, then in logically consistent groups. Each run, or scenario, provides insight into how that potential action or group of actions might affect the course of future events. In this way, Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are able to prioritize potential actions in order to come up with the set that offers the greatest opportunity for avoiding the worst consequences of collapse.

Recommendations for Action

In the end, World3 does provide an answer. Of the various assumptions tested and given the boundary conditions of the model, we can still make a transition to a sustainable global society if people around the world immediately take the following actions:

  1. Stabilize the population
  2. Stabilize industrial output per person
  3. Add technologies to:
    • Abate pollution
    • Conserve resources
    • Increase land yield
    • Protect agricultural land

The bad news is that we have already begun to experience symptoms of overshoot—water tables are dropping rapidly in some areas and incidents of coral bleaching have risen but two of the most urgent signals. The good news is that, as the authors’ account of the ozone story demonstrates, once the global community sees the clear need for change, change can come about quickly.

According to the authors, people respond to signals that a system has overshot its limit in one of three ways:

  1. Deny, disguise, or confuse the signal that the system is sending
  2. Relax the limits through technological or economic action
  3. Change the system structure Certain elements of society are

stuck in response 1, regardless of the growing mountain of evidence calling for action. We see this mindset in the refusal by some politicians to acknowledge the science behind global warming. Others place their faith solely in the market and/or technology, even though the price would be extremely high if the market system and new technologies fail to save the day. The only truly effective response is to change the system structure, the sooner the better.

This was the core message of the original Limits to Growth. And while that message became a part of society’s broad environmental consciousness, the warning went largely unheeded. The result is that the party’s nearly over, and we need to figure out how to minimize the hangover.

Restructuring Society

Because structure determines behavior, the highest-leverage approach to these problems is to change the underlying structures that have created them, such as farming techniques, forest management policy, end-user attitudes toward consumption, recycling, and reuse, and legislation regulating pollution. So how do we go about restructuring the global system? The authors share the tools they have found to be useful: rational analysis, data gathering, systems thinking, computer modeling, and clear communication.

Notice that these tools really have more to do with making the case for change than they do with enacting change that has been agreed upon. That is, they are exceptionally useful for helping lawmakers understand the need for change and explaining to corporate decision makers the logic behind a shift. These tools can even guide the overall implementation of a change effort. But once the case has been made, the day-to-day activities can look somewhat like business as usual: rewriting laws, redesigning products and processes, reorganizing departments, and so forth. The difference is that the guidance offered by these tools means the change is less like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic and more like fixing the hole in the ship.

The 30-Year Update is compelling: We have already overshot the planet’s carrying capacity on numerous vital resources. Whether humanity is successful in avoiding the most disastrous effects of collapse will be determined in part by the actions taken by people across our society and planet. Unfortunately, politicians and other leaders often seem to be linear and “black-and-white” thinkers. Navigating the turbulence ahead will require decision making that appreciates non-linearities and shades of grey. The 30-Year Update will bring some to the sustainability camp. But more important, it will inspire others—those with the necessary perspective—to take action. There’s no time to waste.

Gregory Hennessy is honored to have worked with Dennis Meadows on several occasions and to have met the late Dana Meadows once.

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Creating Tomorrow’s Innovators Today https://thesystemsthinker.com/creating-tomorrows-innovators-today/ https://thesystemsthinker.com/creating-tomorrows-innovators-today/#respond Tue, 12 Jan 2016 15:50:09 +0000 http://systemsthinker.wpengine.com/?p=2367 n 2010, IBM’s Institute for Business Value surveyed 1,500 chief executives from 60 counties and 33 industries to determine the foremost issue confronting them and their organizations. The answer: global complexity. When asked in turn about the most important leadership competency for managing this complexity, the CEOs identified “creativity” as the crucial factor for future […]

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In 2010, IBM’s Institute for Business Value surveyed 1,500 chief executives from 60 counties and 33 industries to determine the foremost issue confronting them and their organizations. The answer: global complexity. When asked in turn about the most important leadership competency for managing this complexity, the CEOs identified “creativity” as the crucial factor for future success. But they weren’t confident in their companies’ abilities to innovate for the future; only 49 percent believed that their organizations were equipped to deal with the rising complexity they face.

The good news, according to Tony Wagner, former co-director of the Change Leadership Group at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, is that the key qualities necessary for innovation—curiosity, collaboration, associative or integrative thinking, and a bias toward action and experimentation—are skills that can be learned rather than being strictly innate. Nevertheless, in his latest book, Creating Innovators: The Making of Young People Who Will Change the World (Scribner, 2012), he makes the case that most of our schools, at all levels, are failing to provide students with the hands-on, collaborative learning that fosters creative, critical thinking. Instead, they continue to prepare students in traditional ways for a career path that no longer exists.

Breaking the Mold

TEAM TIP

Look at the ways in which your organization recruits and rewards people. Do these practices support or undermine innovation?

To illustrate that a different way of teaching and learning is possible, Wagner introduces several educational programs that are striving to break the existing mold, including the High Tech High network of K–12 schools in San Diego, California, Olin College in Needhaam, MA, the MIT Media Lab, and Stanford’s d. school. The essential difference between these programs and other, more conventional ones is that these schools promote:

  • Collaboration versus individual achievement
  • Multidisciplinary learning versus specialization
  • Trial and error versus risk avoidance Creating versus consuming
  • Intrinsic versus extrinsic motivation

Wagner quotes Richard Miller, president of Olin College, on the college’s goal, one that is largely shared by the other leading-edge institutions Wagner studied:

We’ve trying to teach students to take initiative—to transmit attitudes, motivations, and behaviors versus mere knowledge. Today, it’s not what you know, it’s having the right questions. I see three stages in the evolution of learning: The first is the memorization-based, multiple-choice approach, which is still widely prevalent; then there’s project-based learning where the problem is already determined; finally, there’s design-based learning where you have to define the problem. That way of learning is part of every class here. We are trying to teach students how to frame problems versus repeat the answers.

To achieve this objective, schools require a new kind of educator, one who serves more as a coach and co-learner than as an authority in an academic subject. Wagner highlights two graduate schools of education that have developed new teaching models: the High Tech High Graduate School of Education and the Upper Valley Educators Institute in Lebanon, NH. In both of these programs, novice teachers spend most of their time working with a mentor in a school setting rather than sitting in lectures learning about education theory. In this way, these programs resemble the approach to teacher education used in Finland, a country that has produced outstanding results on international assessments. Interestingly—but maybe not surprisingly, give how entrenched traditional educational philosophies have proven to be—neither the High Tech High Graduate School of Education nor the Upper Valley Educators Institute has received accreditation from its respective regional accreditation agency.

Finding a Path

Given the scant attention paid to fostering creativity, it’s no shock that the young innovators whom Wagner features in the book worked hard to create their own opportunities. Kirk Phelps left Phillips Exeter Academy and Stanford University without graduating, yet at 29 has already had successful careers at Apple working on the iPhone and SunRun, a leading home solar power company. Zander Srodes became an advocate for sea turtle conservancy, authoring a book, leading ecological tours, and earning numerous youth achievement awards and grants—all while struggling in the classroom. Syreeta Gates, who founded SWT Life, which provides New York City teens with entrepreneurial coaching and personal development training, dropped out of City Technical College of New York before finding a sense of purpose through volunteer work.

Virtually all of Wagner’s interview subjects benefited from the guidance of a mentor and participation in unconventional learning experiences. In many cases, the mentor’s efforts weren’t recognized or well compensated by mainstream institutions but instead were done as labor of love. Such is the case of Amanda Alonzo, who works as a science teacher and science fair faculty advisor. She spends as many as four hours a day after school mentoring 40 students a year on their science fair projects. For her efforts, she receives only a $1,800 stipend on top of her teacher’s salary.

Encouraging Creative Work

So where do we go from here? Wagner is aware that schools alone can’t shoulder the burden for developing innovators—parents and employers have a role to play as well. Based on his interviews with innovators and their families, he identified ways in which parents can encourage the “spirit of play, passion, and purpose that are the wellsprings for creative work.” Some of these include allowing plenty of time for play and discovery; encouraging reading; providing toys that encourage imagination and invention; limiting screen time; and allowing kids to make and learn from mistakes.

Wagner also interviewed business leaders, including Tom Kelley from IDEO and Annmarie Neal from Cisco Systems, about how management practices need to change for young innovators to thrive in corporations. Many of the characteristics they described as being vital—such as the free flow of information up and down the organization and trust— are reminiscent of the characteristics of a learning organization as described by Peter Senge in The Fifth Discipline more than two decades ago.

The US Army is also aware of the need for a new organizational model. According to the report, “The Army Learning Concept for 2015,” “[T]he Army cannot risk failure through complacency, lack of imagination, or resistance to change.” The report recommends three steps for establishing a more effective learning model, including converting classroom experiences to collaborative problem-solving events; tailoring learning to the individual learner’s experience and competence level; and using a blended learning approach that incorporate simulations, gaming technology, and other technology-based instruction.

Staying the Course

Recognizing that change can take time, Wagner concludes the book with a letter to today’s young innovators, who may have to persevere in less-than optimal circumstances. To encourage them to stay the course, he quotes dancer and choreographer Martha Graham:

There is a vitality, a life force, an energy, a quickening that is translated through you into action, and because there is only one you in all time, this expression is unique. And if you will block it, it will never exist through any other medium and it will be lost. The world will not have it. It is not your business to determine how good it is nor how valuable nor how it compares with other expressions. It is your business to keep it yours clearly and directly, to keep the channel open.

The rest of us have an obligation, too, to give members of the next generation the tools they need to flourish. If we don’t, they will pay the price for our failure of imagination and foresight.

Janice Molloy is content director at Pegasus Communications and managing editor of The Systems Thinker.

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Removing Barriers to Success at Caterpillar https://thesystemsthinker.com/removing-barriers-to-success-at-caterpillar/ https://thesystemsthinker.com/removing-barriers-to-success-at-caterpillar/#respond Mon, 28 Dec 2015 23:10:52 +0000 http://systemsthinker.wpengine.com/?p=2763 n most enterprises, it isn’t enough to achieve success; the key challenge is to sustain it. At this year’s Pegasus Conference, keynote speaker Cristiano Schena, a vice president at heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar Inc., recounted how he and his coworkers reversed the fortunes of a foundering business unit in Brazil and sustained that success by […]

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In most enterprises, it isn’t enough to achieve success; the key challenge is to sustain it. At this year’s Pegasus Conference, keynote speaker Cristiano Schena, a vice president at heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar Inc., recounted how he and his coworkers reversed the fortunes of a foundering business unit in Brazil and sustained that success by overcoming limits they encountered to the division’s growth. His story offers a powerful example of the benefits of identifying and managing forces that can throw the brakes on performance long before its decline becomes noticeable.

The Rebuilding Process

In 1996, Schena was assigned to run Caterpillar’s Brazilian operation, located in the troubled city of Piracicaba. Up until that time, the division’s performance had been less than stellar, and Schena determined to breathe life into the organization by motivating employees to rebuild the business themselves (see R1 in “Limits on Skilled Workers”). This approach and the resulting employee engagement not only helped turn the company around, but in 1999 earned the facility a notable operational excellence certification and the country’s most prestigious quality award. Today, Caterpillar Brazil continues to be number one in the company in terms of financial returns and employee satisfaction.

However, at a certain point, Chris and his management team began to recognize that the state of the larger community could threaten the organization’s ongoing success. The urban area surrounding the factory suffered from high crime and a failing educational system. It soon became clear that the lack of skilled workers could halt the division’s upward trajectory (see B2).

LIMITS ON SKILLED WORKERS


LIMITS ON SKILLED WORKERS

As employees became engaged in rebuilding the division, they created high levels of success (R1). With the rise in success came the need to hire more workers. Because of problems in the surrounding community, management anticipated that, at a certain point, the availability of skilled workers would begin to decline (B2). To overcome this limit, Cat Brazil invested in programs to boost the skills of the local population and make the city appealing to workers from elsewhere.


Overcoming the Limit

To overcome this potential limit, Cat Brazil embarked on worker education and health programs, among other initiatives. In addition, the organization launched a project known as Piracicaba 2010. This effort brought together local officials, entrepreneurs, CEOs, and other community and media leaders to develop a vision and strategy to attract talented people to the city. The goal was to make Piracicaba a model of sustainable development and an excellent place to live.

Caterpillar Brazil offered its resources and strategic planning capability to jump-start the effort, and many employees enthusiastically volunteered their own time toward the effort. Within six months, the initiative was mature enough for the team to hold a town meeting to expand community participation., “By getting citizens to talk to each other regularly in the pursuit of a common goal rather than their own smaller agenda,” says Chris, “the community was able to work together to make the environment more attractive and safer. In fact, now the city not only attracts more professionals but more businesses as well.” A couple of years ago, the Brazilian government selected Piracicaba 2010 as a pilot program for the country to exemplify what needs to be done to regenerate its cities. Since 2002, Brazil’s government has granted funding to run the program, and similar projects have sprung up throughout the country.

Removing Barriers

Sustaining success means more than pushing on an organization’s growth engine; it also involves removing barriers that might impede that growth. As the Caterpillar Brazil story illustrates, the process of removing those hurdles can open up new possibilities both within and beyond the organization’s boundaries, creating an ongoing cycle of growth.

Janice Molloy is managing editor of The Systems Thinker. Kali Saposnick is publications editor at Pegasus Communications.

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Transforming the Systems Movement https://thesystemsthinker.com/transforming-the-systems-movement/ https://thesystemsthinker.com/transforming-the-systems-movement/#respond Tue, 17 Nov 2015 21:44:36 +0000 http://systemsthinker.wpengine.com/?p=1866 he situation the world is in is a mess. This hardly requires documentation; it’s obvious. Furthermore, as Leslie Gelb observed in his article “Fresh Faces” (The New York Times, December 8, 1991), the prospects for improvement are not promising: “[T]he emerging world requires a new foreign policy agenda, and fresh faces to execute that agenda. […]

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The situation the world is in is a mess. This hardly requires documentation; it’s obvious. Furthermore, as Leslie Gelb observed in his article “Fresh Faces” (The New York Times, December 8, 1991), the prospects for improvement are not promising:

“[T]he emerging world requires a new foreign policy agenda, and fresh faces to execute that agenda. The trouble is, the same old ‘experts’ are still running foreign policy and most of them only dimly understand the world they preside over. Indeed, few people today, in or out of Government, have the background and skills to grasp, let alone direct, the new agenda.”

Reform will not do it; transformations are required, two kinds. First, a transformation of the way nations and international institutions handle global affairs, and second, a transformation in the way systems thinkers collectively conduct the systems movement. The second must come first if we hope to have any effect on the global mess.

Doing the Wrong Thing Right

Reformations and transformations are not the same thing. Reformations are concerned with changing the means systems employ to pursue their objectives. Transformations involve changes in the objectives they pursue. Peter Drucker put this distinction dramatically when he said there is a difference between doing things right (the intent of reformations) and doing the right thing (the intent of transformations). The righter we do the wrong thing, the wronger we become. When we make a mistake doing the wrong thing and correct it, we become wronger. When we make a mistake doing the right thing and correct it, we become righter. Therefore, it is better to do the right thing wrong than the wrong thing right.

This is very significant because almost every problem confronting our society is a result of the fact that our public-policy makers are doing the wrong things and are trying to do them righter. Consider a few examples.

The United States has a higher percentage of its population in prison than any other country, and simultaneously has the highest crime rate. We have more people in prison than are attending college and universities, and it costs more per year to incarcerate them than to educate them. Something is fundamentally wrong.

Almost every problem confronting our society is a result of the fact that our public-policy makers are doing the wrong things and are trying to do them righter.

Most who are imprisoned are subsequently released. As criminologists have shown, those released have a higher probability of committing a crime when they come out than when they went in, and it is likely to be a more serious crime. Prison is a school for learning criminality, not a correctional institution.

In quality, the healthcare system of the United States is ranked 37th by the World Health Organization. We are the only developed country without universal coverage; about 42 million people in our country have no healthcare assured. Moreover, study after study has shown that much of the need for the care that is provided is created by the care that is given: excess surgery, incorrect diagnoses, wrong drugs prescribed or administered, unnecessary tests. The fact is that the so-called healthcare system can survive only as long as there are people who are sick or disabled. Therefore, whatever the intent of its servers, the system can only assure its survival by creating and preserving illness and disability. We have a self-maintaining sickness- and disability-care system, not a healthcare system.

The objectives that must be changed in transformations are not usually those that are proclaimed; rather they are the ones actually pursued. For example, most corporations proclaim maximization of shareholder value as their primary objective. Any objective observer of corporate behavior knows that this is an illusion. As a study conducted a while back at GE showed, the principal objective of corporations is to maximize the security, standard of living, and quality of life of those making the decisions. Recent disclosures at Enron and WorldCom, among others, made this abundantly clear.

A similar discrepancy between objective proclaimed and objective practiced can be observed in most organizations. For example, one could mistakenly believe that the principal objective of universities is to educate students. What a myth! The principal objective of a university is to provide job security and increase the standard of living and quality of life of those members of the faculty and administration who make the critical decisions. Teaching is a price faculty members must pay to share in the benefits provided. Like any price, they try to minimize it. Note that the more senior and politically powerful teaching members of the faculty are, the less teaching they do.

Transforming How We Think

Transformations not only require recognition of the difference between what is practiced and what is preached—a transformation called for years ago by Donald Schön in his book Beyond the Stable State (Random House, 1971)—it also requires a transformation in the way we think. Einstein put it powerfully and succinctly: “Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current patterns of thought.”

I believe the pattern of thought that is required is systemic. It is difficult if at all possible to reduce the meaning of “systemic thinking” to a brief definition. Nevertheless, I try. Systemic thinking is holistic versus reductionistic thinking, synthetic versus analytic. Reductionistic and analytic thinking derive properties of wholes from the properties of their parts. Holistic and synthetic thinking derive properties of parts from properties of the whole that contains them.

The creation of the department of Homeland Security is a prime example of reductionistic and analytical thinking; the whole formed by the aggregation of existing parts. In contrast, when an architect designs a house, he first sketches the house as a whole and then puts rooms into it. The principal criterion he employs in evaluating a room is what effect it has on the whole. He is even willing to make a room worse if doing so will make the house better.

In general, those who make public policy and engage in public decision making do not understand that improvement in the performance of parts of a system taken separately may not, and usually does not, improve performance of the system as a whole. In fact, it may make system performance worse or even destroy it.

We have not effectively communicated such thoughts to public-policy and decision makers. What should we be communicating to them that would, if heeded, transform our global society into one that is just and equitable, one that would reduce if not eliminate the unequal distribution of wealth, quality of life, and opportunity?

In other words, what should we communicate and be doing that could promote development of the world and its parts by changing the way public policies and decisions are made?

Up to now, those of us in systems have had little or no effect on the global mess. Nevertheless, I believe there is a role that we could play in the dissolution of it. What and how might we contribute to its dissolution? I think we can contribute by making public-policy and decision makers aware of ideas and concepts that would enable them to think more creatively and effectively about the mess the world is in. Here I discuss only a few systemic ideas and processes that I wish they understood. There are many others, but I would settle for their grasping this much.

The ideas and concepts I identify here are familiar to most systems thinkers even if they would express them differently. I include them to call their attention to aspects of systems thinking that I believe they should communicate to public-policy and decision makers.

Development Versus Growth

I hope we can help public-policy and decision makers realize that development and growth are not the same thing. Neither presupposes the other. Rubbish heaps grow but do not develop. Einstein continued to develop long after he stopped growing. Some nations grow larger without developing, and others develop without growing.

Growth is an increase in size or number. Development is an increase in competence, the ability to satisfy one’s needs and desires and those of others. Growth is a matter of earning; development is a matter of learning. Standard of living is an index of national growth; quality of life is an index of its development. Development is not a matter of how much one has but how much one can do with whatever one has. This is why Robinson Crusoe is a better model of development than J. Pierpont Morgan.

The quality of life that an individual or group can achieve obviously depends on both their competence and their wealth. Of two societies with the same level of competence, the one with the most wealth can achieve the higher quality of life. But of two societies with the same resources, the one with the greater competence can achieve a higher quality of life.

Because development is a matter of learning, one cannot do it for another. The only kind of development possible is self-development. However, one can facilitate the development of another by encouraging and supporting their learning. Nations must stop acting as though they can solve other nations’ problems. Nations, like individuals, learn less from the successes of others than from their own mistakes.

One never learns from doing things right because, obviously, one already knows how to do them. What one derives from doing something right is confirmation of what one already knows. This has value, but it is not learning. One can only learn from mistakes, by identifying and correcting them. But all through school and in most places of employment, we are taught that making mistakes is a bad thing. Therefore, we try to hide or deny those we make. To the extent we succeed, we preclude learning.

Furthermore, there are two types of mistakes: errors of commission, doing something we should not have done; and errors of omission, not doing something we should have done. Examination of the failures or crises that organizations and institutions have experienced reveals that errors of omission are the more serious.

For example, in the latter part of the last century, IBM got into serious trouble because it failed to pay attention to the development of small computers, and Kodak got into its current trouble for failing to focus on the development of digital photography until others had successfully staked a claim to it. Our public and private accounting systems record only the less important type of mistake, errors of commission. Therefore, for executives who want to maximize their job security in a public or private organization that deprecates mistakes and ignores errors of omission, the best strategy is to do nothing or as little as possible. This is the root of the conservatism that permeates the world today.

This nation, I believe, has never had an administration as reluctant to acknowledge its errors as the one currently in office. Because of this, it has precluded the possibility of its learning.

Learning About Learning

We need to learn a great deal more about learning. Our schools at all levels are devoted more to teaching than to learning. For example, it is apparent to anyone who has taught others that the teacher learns more than the students do. Teaching is a much better way to learn than being taught. Schools are upside down. Students ought to be teaching and faculty members should be learning how to help others learn and how to motivate them to do so.

A student once stopped me in the hall and asked, “Professor, when did you teach your first class?” That was easy: I answered, “September of 1941.”, “Wow!” he said., “You have been teaching for a very long time.” I agreed. Then he asked, “When was the last time you taught a course in a subject that existed when you were a student?” This question required some thought but finally I got it and answered, “September of 1951.” He said, “Do mean to say that everything you have taught for about 50 years you had to learn without having it taught to you?” I said, “Yes.”, “Wow,” he said again., “You must be a pretty good learner.” I modestly agreed. He continued, “What a pity you are not that good a teacher.”

He had it right: Faculty members know how to learn better than they know how to teach. Therefore, they should be acting as resources to students who are either engaged in teaching others, or learning on their own or with others cooperatively. One of the great gifts I received from West Churchman is that he let me go through graduate school teaching most of the courses I needed to take for graduation.

Democracy has to be learned. It cannot be imposed on others. It must be learned by experiencing it. It does not come to us naturally. All of us are brought up by adults who, even in permissive families, are authorities who control us or set limits within which we have freedom. In effect, we are raised in autocratic structures, however benevolent they may be. Therefore, in a sense autocracy is more natural than democracy.

Systems thinking produces radical and potentially revolutionary visions of public institutions.

I was once involved in a project in Mexico that taught me how democracy could be learned. A group of us from several Mexican universities and a government agency were able to make available to a very remote Indian village in the Sierra Madras Mountains a substantial sum of money the village could use for its development. It alone had to make the decisions as to how to use the money but it had to make these decisions democratically. The only power the team of which I was a part had was to veto any decisions that were not made democratically and that did not involve development. Town meetings were initiated in the square in the center of the village, and after a series of tries, the village members learned how to make decisions democratically. They also learned the difference between development and welfare.

How Do We Have to Change Ourselves?

“[M]an has been able to grow enthusiastic over his vision of . . . unconvincing enterprises. He has pit himself to work for the sake of an idea, seeking by magnificent exertions to arrive at the incredible. And in the end, he has arrived there. Beyond all doubt it is one of the vital sources of man’s power, to be thus able to kindle enthusiasm from the mere glimmer of something improbable, difficult, remote” (José Ortega y Gasset, Mission of the University, Norton, 1966).

Now, what might the systems community do about the deficiencies I have discussed? Clearly, we must learn how through communication to make public-policy and decision makers aware of these deficiencies and what to do about them. We are not doing so now. Most of our communication is addressed to each other, not to public-policy and decision makers. Our communication is based on our needs, not those of others. With the intent of changing this I have several proposals.

First, our principal professional organization, the International Federation for Systems Research, should publish a journal addressed to public policy and decision makers who can affect the global mess. Through expository articles and case studies, the journal should help them come to understand systems thinking and its use in their work. It should be distributed to them at no cost. The federation should cover the cost, if necessary by voluntary contributions of its members.

The journal, possibly called Systems Thinking in Public Affairs, should be supplemented by at least one conference per year held at a site at which a major multi-governmental institution is located. Public-policy and decision makers should be invited mostly to discuss their problems and listen to unconventional systemic approaches to them.

In addition, those of us who think of ourselves as system thinkers should contribute to those publications that are read by those in public life whom we want to affect. We should also try to make presentations at conferences they attend. Our professional societies should make it their responsibility to facilitate such participation by informing us of relevant opportunities and, where possible, by arranging jointly sponsored meetings.

Finally, we should engage in assisting development efforts of less developed countries, regions, communities, and neighborhoods. This does not mean imposing our solutions on them but assisting them in implementing their proposed solutions to their problems, even if they are wrong. They can develop more by making their own mistakes than by imitating our successes.

Systems thinking produces radical and potentially revolutionary visions of public institutions. Nothing short of such visions can transform the state of world affairs. I believe we have an obligation to the global society of which we are a part to make every possible effort to bring about a radical transformation of that society into one in which our children do not have to contend with the mess we have created and are exacerbating.

NEXT STEPS

  • Talk with others in your organization about whether your problem solving and change efforts tend to focus on “doing things right” or “doing the right thing.” If the former, how does this hinder your chances for success?
  • Explore examples of holistic and reductionistic thinking. In planning new initiatives, does your organization first look at the system as a whole and ensure that the project will not undermine other parts of the system? Or do most efforts seek to improve performance in a part of the system without regard for the impact on the rest of the organization?
  • According to Ackoff, errors of omission are more serious than errors of commission. Can you and your colleagues identify errors of omission that have occurred in your area over the past year or two? What can you learn from analyzing the dynamics that led to the failure to act in these instances?
  • The tools of systems thinking—such as behavior over time graphs, causal loop diagrams, and systems archetypes—can be useful in exploring each of the areas of inquiry outlined above. They can also help to ensure that your actions will have the intended outcomes. For an overview of these concepts, go to http://www.pegasuscom.com/lrnmore.html.

Russell L. Ackoff is Anheuser-Busch Professor Emeritus of Management Science at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business. He is an architect, city planner, doctor of philosophy, trailblazer in systems theory, best-selling author, distinguished professor, and head of his own management education and consulting firm. Two of his book.

Scientific Method (1962) and Redesigning the Future (1974), are the cornerstones of much of the theory and methods for a systems approach to problem solving. His latest book, Redesigning Society (Stanford University Press, 2003), coauthored with Sheldon Rovin, is an effort to redesign our society and its major institutions according to systems principles.

This paper was originally presented at the 3rd International Conference on Systems Thinking in Management, May 19, 2004. The conference was cohosted by the Ackoff Center for the Advancement of Systems Approaches and the Association for Enterprise Integration.

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